A recent economic analysis suggests that former President Donald Trump’s restrictive immigration policies could have a significant negative impact on U.S. economic growth, especially by reducing the size of the workforce and slowing long-term expansion of the economy.
According to a study by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), changes to both legal and illegal immigration rules under the Trump administration are projected to shrink the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the next decade. The research estimates that immigration restrictions could reduce the average annual growth rate from 1.8% to around 1.3% between fiscal years 2025 and 2035 — nearly a third less growth than previously forecasted. Over the period from 2025 to 2028, this projected loss amounts to an estimated $1.9 trillion in economic output, and by 2035, cumulative losses may exceed $12 trillion. nfap.com
Economists say these effects stem primarily from fewer immigrants entering the workforce, which can result in labor shortages in critical sectors such as healthcare, construction, agriculture, and technology. Immigrants not only fill jobs that are hard to staff with native-born workers but also increase overall demand for goods and services — a key driver of economic growth. Council on Foreign Relations
In addition to slower GDP growth, the study estimates that tighter immigration policies could increase federal debt due to reduced tax revenues generated by a smaller workforce. The report projects roughly $252 billion more in public debt by 2028, with even greater increases by 2035, partly due to rising enforcement spending. nfap.com
Other research echoes these concerns: economists at the Brookings Institution project that lower net immigration could shave approximately 0.2 to 0.5 percentage points off U.S. GDP growth in 2025, largely due to decreased labor supply and weaker consumer spending. Brookings
Critics of the restrictive immigration approach argue that the economic consequences could deepen labor shortages, slow innovation, and raise prices in key industries. Supporters of the policies contend they protect American jobs and reduce budgetary pressures — but many analysts warn that the net effect could be fewer workers, slower growth, and higher economic costs over time.
As the debate over immigration policy continues to shape national politics and economic forecasts, its impact on GDP is likely to remain a central issue among economists, policymakers, and business leaders.
